By Samantha Hargrove
Curious about the chances of someone at your Thanksgiving gathering having COVID-19? This tool can help you find out.
It’s safe to say that the U.S. has lost significant control over the COVID-19 pandemic, with daily infections exceeding 100,000 and over 1,000 fatalities occurring each day. Many hospitals are facing severe shortages of ICU beds. All of this is happening just as Thanksgiving approaches, a time when about 40 percent of Americans still intend to travel, despite the escalating crisis.
With this alarming surge in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths coinciding with the holiday season, you might be pondering the risks associated with your Thanksgiving and Christmas plans. Fortunately, a new tool can assist you in assessing those risks.
Researchers at Georgia Tech have developed a “COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool,” which features a map allowing users to select any U.S. county and group size to determine the probability that someone at that gathering will be infected with the virus.
For instance, if you’re considering attending a 50-person wedding in Portland, Oregon, you can select the group size and hover over Multnomah County, revealing a 41 percent chance that at least one attendee has COVID-19. Alternatively, if you’re hosting a 10-person Thanksgiving dinner in Chicago, adjusting the group size to 10 and focusing on Cook County shows a 29 percent chance of infection among your guests.
This tool can estimate risk for virtually any gathering size across the country, using real-time COVID case data. However, it can only indicate the risk level of an activity; it won’t determine if attending is too risky—that decision rests with you.
“In a way, it’s like a weather map,” explained Dr. Emily Carter, a professor of city and regional planning and interactive computing at Georgia Tech who contributed to the tool’s development. “It can inform you of the likelihood of rain, but it won’t tell you whether you’ll get wet. That depends on whether you bring an umbrella or decide to stay indoors.”
This tool aims to provide clarity for those contemplating holiday travel this year, especially given that the current situation is far worse than it was during the spring lockdowns or even the summer, when a deadly second wave took countless lives.
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Summary:
As COVID-19 cases surge in the U.S., a new tool from Georgia Tech allows users to assess the risk of infection at gatherings based on local data. By selecting a county and group size, individuals can understand the likelihood of encountering someone with the virus. This can help inform decisions about holiday travel and gatherings, although the final choice remains personal.
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