In our experience, the grandparents in our lives are more than ready to reunite with our kids. My mother and stepfather reside in Utah, while my partner’s parents are in Idaho. Although they’ve been making the most of the situation through FaceTime and phone calls, my mother-in-law has really stepped up by reading stories to my six-year-old. Honestly, after months of being cooped up together, having Grandma read stories online has likely saved my sanity. However, it has been a long time since Grandma and Grandpa have seen our children, and with the vaccine rollout underway, the burning question for our family—and probably yours too—is: when can we finally visit?
As with everything regarding COVID-19, the situation is complex, and the first step is getting vaccinated. According to NBC News, essential workers and individuals over 65 are next in line for the vaccine, a recent shift from the previous age group of 75 and older. It’s worth noting that essential workers make up a larger group than one might expect. The Wall Street Journal reports that there are around 87 million essential workers, not including those over 75 unless they also hold essential jobs, like grocery store employees or teachers. Consequently, it remains uncertain when exactly Grandma and Grandpa will receive their vaccinations, but it should occur within the next few months.
Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician and professor at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, recently discussed when grandparents might be able to see their grandchildren without masks or social distancing. Her insights focused on risk mitigation.
Dr. Wen explained that there are multiple factors to consider beyond just when grandparents receive the vaccine. For instance, the vaccine requires two doses. “There is probably some level of immunity after one dose, but we don’t know how complete the protection is and how long it lasts,” she mentioned in an interview with CNN. With both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, there’s a wait of several weeks between doses (three weeks for Pfizer, four for Moderna). Furthermore, it takes an additional two to three weeks after the second dose to achieve optimal immune protection. So, if you do the math, that adds up to about five to six weeks after the first shot.
Even once vaccinated, the effectiveness of the vaccine is about 95%. While that’s a high level of protection, there remains a 5% chance of contracting the virus after vaccination. However, Dr. Wen reassured that the likelihood of severe illness is significantly reduced post-vaccination.
Despite this positive news, doctors still do not know if vaccinated individuals can carry and spread the virus to others. This uncertainty is where the real concern lies. Current data suggests that while vaccines are effective at preventing severe illness, they might not fully prevent transmission.
Consider the case of my partner, who was hospitalized for three weeks with pneumonia that progressed to septic shock—thankfully, not COVID-19. Her doctor has advised that she is at high risk for complications from COVID-19. If her parents were to be vaccinated and wait for it to take effect, they would likely be protected from the virus. However, if they visited our children or my partner, there’s still a risk they could carry the virus, putting her at risk given her recent medical history.
So, what does this mean for grandparent visits? According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, around 70-85% of the population needs to be vaccinated for a significant decrease in cases and to achieve herd immunity. This equates to approximately 230 to 279 million people in the U.S.—a substantial number.
Dr. Wen hopes to have her father visit from Vancouver in the summer or early fall of 2021. While that may seem far off, especially considering how time feels during the pandemic, it’s a date we can look forward to, unlike the uncertainty of the past several months.
Ultimately, it boils down to evaluating risk. Families should assess various factors, including medical histories and vaccination status, before making decisions. However, there is hope on the horizon, and it’s only a matter of time before those grandkids receive some much-deserved hugs from their grandparents. They have a lot of time to make up for!
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In summary, the anticipation of visiting grandparents is complicated by the ongoing pandemic and vaccination timelines. While there is light at the end of the tunnel, families must carefully assess risks and stay informed about vaccination developments. The hope for safe reunions is growing stronger as more people get vaccinated.
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