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As the pandemic progressed, the concept of “herd immunity” was frequently discussed. Some advocated for achieving it “naturally” through widespread infection, while others believed vaccination would be the key. However, recent insights suggest that true herd immunity may elude the U.S. for the foreseeable future.
While over half of American adults have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose, vaccination rates are beginning to decline. According to a report by The Globe Times, there is a growing consensus among public health professionals that reaching the herd immunity threshold is unlikely—perhaps even impossible.
“The virus is not going to disappear,” said Alex Morgan, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Chicago. “Our goal is to manage it so that it becomes a mild infection.” Dr. Smith, a prominent infectious disease expert, previously mentioned specific vaccination percentage targets for herd immunity, but that terminology has faded recently. “There’s been confusion about the idea that we must hit a certain number to see a drop in infections,” he explained. “Instead, the focus should be on vaccinating enough people to reduce overall infections.”
Experts cite several reasons for this shift in perspective, with variants and vaccine hesitancy being primary factors. The rapid mutation of the virus suggests that at least 80% of the population would need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. However, recent surveys indicate that approximately 30% of Americans remain hesitant about getting vaccinated, making the math challenging.
Moreover, even if vaccination rates improve nationally, areas with high vaccine reluctance will remain vulnerable. “The virus will not be deterred by state lines; it will continue to spread,” remarked Sarah Johnson, an epidemiologist at Stanford. Additionally, the fight for herd immunity in the U.S. is rendered moot if other countries do not also achieve similar levels of vaccination.
So, if herd immunity is no longer the target, what should be the new focus? “Our aim should be to minimize COVID-19 outbreaks to sporadic incidents,” stated Lucy Martin, an evolutionary biologist at Yale University. The ideal scenario would resemble that of seasonal flu, although some individuals may continue to suffer from long COVID. On a national level, if cases remain manageable, it can be seen as a positive outcome, though it does not alleviate the challenges faced by those affected by long COVID.
Realistically, Lawrence Green, Director of Global Health at the Center for Disease Control, noted that while widespread vaccination can significantly reduce transmission, unvaccinated pockets will likely persist, similar to what we see with measles outbreaks.
On a brighter note, Dr. Emily Lewis, Dean of the University of Texas School of Public Health, shared optimism on social media, stating, “As summer and fall approach, we may not achieve herd immunity, but infection rates can remain low. Vaccinated individuals will largely be safe, and with improved treatments, infections may become less severe, allowing life to return closer to normal.”
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In summary, experts now believe that achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 is unlikely due to vaccine hesitancy and the emergence of new variants. The focus has shifted to managing the virus and minimizing outbreaks while ensuring that vaccinated individuals remain safe. While the outlook isn’t entirely bleak, public health experts emphasize the need for continued vigilance and vaccination efforts.
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