We’re Back in Lockdown at Home… Thanks to the Delta Variant

The unsettling news came last Friday: the Israeli Health Ministry announced that early findings indicate the Pfizer vaccine’s effectiveness at preventing severe illness and hospitalization from the Delta variant remains intact, but its efficacy in preventing infections has plummeted to just 39%, significantly down from 95% between January and April. I stumbled upon this update while checking my emails and had to pause for a moment to process it. I ended up reading the article multiple times, and honestly? I freaked out.

It’s important to note a few things that should temper my (and your) panic: that 39% efficacy was based only on a two-week window from June 20 to July 17; the study was small; it’s yet to be peer-reviewed; and Dr. Ran Balicer, the head of Israel’s Covid-19 National Expert Advisory Panel, remarked to The New York Times that accurately estimating vaccine effectiveness is incredibly challenging. Moreover, this data doesn’t imply that 61% of vaccinated individuals contracted Covid; it simply signifies that vaccinated people are now only 39% less likely to contract Covid compared to those who are unvaccinated, rather than 95% less likely.

But… Delta.

The Pfizer vaccine is an mRNA vaccine, which means it introduces messenger RNA into the body, instructing cells to produce a spike protein that the immune system recognizes and attacks. This process generates antibodies and builds immunity against Covid. However, the Delta variant possesses mutations on its spike protein that might diminish the vaccine’s effectiveness. If one mRNA vaccine shows a 39% efficacy, I can’t help but worry that the same may hold true for the other mRNA vaccine: Moderna, which is the one I received. Cue the panic button.

The Delta Variant Is More Contagious

But that’s not all. According to National Geographic, the Delta variant has mutations that alter its interaction with certain human cells, including lung cells, making it significantly easier to infect people. In other words, Delta spreads more readily—by a considerable margin.

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a team of researchers collaborating with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, predicts that due to Delta, Covid cases in the U.S. will consistently rise, peaking in mid-October with a death toll that could be three times what it is now. In the worst-case scenario, it could resemble the crisis we faced last winter, depending on vaccination rates and public health measures (masking, distancing), as reported by NPR.

I reside in a state that seems to be struggling with this pandemic (think one of those Southern states). I see no increase in vaccination rates or implementation of safety measures. I know parents who hosted unmasked pool parties back in June 2020. Will Delta change their minds about getting vaccinated or wearing masks? Highly unlikely.

You might argue that data shows the Pfizer vaccine is still about 91.4% effective at preventing severe illness! That’s wonderful. But it means I might end up with asymptomatic Delta. I’m not particularly worried about my husband or myself contracting it asymptomatically.

What truly concerns me are my three unvaccinated sons, who have no defense against COVID-19.

Lockdown Is Back on the Agenda

Let’s be real: I’ve been fiercely protective throughout this pandemic since March of last year, and I won’t let up now. As of July 21, the Delta variant accounted for more than 83% of Covid cases in the U.S., a significant rise from 30% just a month ago. Dr. Jim Versalovic, the pathologist-in-chief at Texas Children’s Hospital, stated to NBC News, “This variant is spreading like wildfire… We’re extremely worried about children under 12 who currently do not have access to the vaccine.”

Even if some studies suggest that Delta isn’t more dangerous to children than earlier variants, my concern remains. Amanda Simanek, an epidemiology professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, noted, “If more kids are getting infected, we should expect to see an increase in severe cases.” It’s a matter of averages.

Additionally, the American Academy of Pediatrics advises that kids should wear masks outdoors. My children wear masks outside, while other kids in our area do not. As a result, my kids have no playmates. Again. The questions keep piling up: should I allow them to play with kids who have attended school or camp but wore masks? If they do, should it only be outside and while masked? Given Delta’s increased transmissibility and the reduced viral load required for transmission, should I reconsider?

What about children who might stay home, whose parents are vaccinated but work outside the home? Should I be worried about breakthrough cases if the efficacy rate is only 39%? My sons’ best friend’s mom works at a university, which, frankly, is like a hotspot for the virus. Naturally, she was among the first to get vaccinated, and she will wear a mask.

However, my husband teaches high school. He will wear a mask and has implemented a top-notch ventilation system, but he’ll still be in a crowded classroom filled with unvaccinated students. I’m practically in a state of panic. I feel as though I’ve been thrown back to the chaotic days of October 2020.

The hand sanitizer is back on my shopping list. I’m grappling with feelings of agoraphobia once more. My eleven-year-old recently enjoyed a visit to Barnes & Noble. That joy feels lost to me now, and I dread telling him that we won’t return for months. I took my youngest to get some candy at a charming old-fashioned general store. He was so thrilled to pick out jellybeans for his brothers, and we briefly removed our masks while outside. But now, we’re back in lockdown. How do I break this news to my sons?

I understand that severe cases in children are rare. However, after a recent bout of croup (a long story), my kids were incredibly sick and are still coughing. What would happen if they contracted the Delta variant? I can’t take that chance. I’ve worked too hard for their safety.

Initially, we hoped for a vaccine. Now, I’m pinning all my hopes on a vaccine for children. I pray it arrives soon. I long to stop living in constant anxiety once again. Until then, we’re staying indoors. Again.

For more on related subjects, check out this other blog post. Also, if you’re interested in authoritative resources on home insemination, this site offers great insights. Additionally, consider visiting Johns Hopkins Medicine for excellent information on pregnancy and home insemination.

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In summary, the emergence of the Delta variant has led us back into lockdown as we prioritize the safety of our unvaccinated children. Despite the effectiveness of vaccines against severe illness, concerns about transmission and the health of our kids remain paramount. We’re left hoping for a viable vaccine for children while navigating the challenges of this ongoing pandemic.