It’s no secret that COVID-19 is surging across the United States. How severe is it? According to epidemiological data, hospitalizations are our most reliable metric right now, especially given the delays in reporting and testing following the holidays. Remember when Los Angeles ran out of hospital beds in mid-December? Now, they’re facing a shortage of oxygen for COVID-19 patients, and emergency services have been instructed not to transport patients with a low chance of survival, as reported by a Chicago news outlet. They’ve even converted church gyms into makeshift hospitals. With a potential spike from holiday gatherings on the horizon, the situation is deteriorating, with one healthcare supervisor labeling it “a human disaster.” In short: reopening schools now is a terrible idea.
And it’s not just Southern California that’s in crisis. The South is also grappling with the virus’s relentless spread. Smaller counties in Florida, like Seminole, are reporting zero ICU capacity. Local news from South Carolina indicates that several counties in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia are seeing 95% occupancy in their ICU beds, including those around major cities. States are consistently breaking records for hospitalizations. Reports from Alabama reveal that their hospitals are becoming overwhelmed, with officials attributing the current crisis to gatherings over Thanksgiving—long before Christmas.
We are witnessing the peak of COVID-19, making it impossible to justify reopening schools.
The Risks of Reopening Schools
If schools reopen while the virus is rampant in the community, asymptomatic children will inevitably end up in classrooms. They may pick up the virus from family or friends. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, studies indicate that nearly half of pediatric COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic. Therefore, a classroom filled with seemingly healthy kids may be a hotbed for transmission. These children can unknowingly spread the virus not only among themselves but also to teachers and staff, who then take it home to more vulnerable individuals, such as the elderly or those with pre-existing conditions.
Research published in The Journal of Pediatrics indicates that children, even those without symptoms, can carry a viral load greater than that of ICU patients. Additionally, a study from JAMA shows that asymptomatic children can shed the virus for weeks. If schools reopen, these unsuspecting superspreaders are likely to be our youngest students.
The Reality of Safety Measures
In an ideal scenario, schools could safely reopen with universal mask-wearing, social distancing, thorough disinfection, and proper ventilation. However, who is going to ensure that all five-year-olds keep their masks on? And how do you manage social distancing on school buses, during fire drills, or even in bathrooms? The National Education Association has indicated that many schools lack adequate ventilation, which complicates efforts to maintain a safe environment.
High School Challenges
High schoolers pose an additional challenge. Epidemiologists have found that many teens are reluctant to report COVID-19 symptoms due to the fear of being quarantined. Research from South Korea indicates that teenagers and tweens are more likely to transmit the virus than younger children or adults. If schools reopen, we risk creating a public health crisis.
Teens may attend school to avoid missing sports games or important tests, and as infection rates rise, they will end up spreading the virus to more vulnerable populations, leading to increased hospitalizations and fatalities. Reopening schools now would only exacerbate the strain on an already overwhelmed healthcare system.
The Need to Keep Schools Closed
The situation is dire and will likely worsen as we continue to see spikes from holiday gatherings. Reports indicate that the weekend before Christmas saw more travelers than during Thanksgiving. If hospitals are already at capacity, many states may soon find themselves facing scenarios like that of Los Angeles—where paramedics have to choose which patients to transport, gyms are converted into hospitals, and oxygen supplies run low.
While we all want to return to normal life, the answer does not lie in reopening schools prematurely. We must adhere to safety protocols, self-isolate, and resist the urge to reopen schools, despite any political pressure. This decision is not just about protecting children and staff; it also plays a crucial role in curbing the virus’s spread in our communities and alleviating the burden on healthcare systems.
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Summary:
Reopening schools during the current COVID-19 surge is fraught with dangers. Asymptomatic children can spread the virus to their peers, teachers, and vulnerable populations, leading to increased hospitalizations and strain on healthcare systems. With hospitals already overwhelmed and expected to face more challenges from recent holiday gatherings, the risks outweigh the benefits. To protect everyone, we must continue to prioritize safety and keep schools closed.
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