The inquiry from a friend lingered in my mind: “How will this summer be different?” This was in March when I expressed my hesitance about a socially-distanced meetup. My answer then was that, logically, not much would change, but emotionally, things would feel altered. If asked the same question now, I’d be open to a socially-distanced visit. The shift in perception is significant.
Perhaps it’s due to our growing understanding of how the virus spreads, allowing us to adopt better risk mitigation strategies, even though uncertainties remain. The infection rates in my locality have decreased (though they haven’t completely disappeared), making the prospect of controlled risks more palatable. Additionally, the tone of communications flooding my inbox has transitioned from early March’s “Here’s how our organization is responding to COVID-19” to “Here’s our plan for reopening.”
Most importantly, as I confront the stark reality that COVID-19 is here to stay for the foreseeable future, I grapple with a tough truth. This acknowledgment is becoming more widespread as states initiate reopening. We now face critical decisions about what “living” means both personally and societally, what level of risk we’re willing to accept, and how effectively we can manage that risk.
This leads to a multitude of choices: If summer camps resume, should we enroll our kids? If schools reopen, how do we navigate that? Can we trust our children to socialize with a neighbor while adhering to safety measures? Is it prudent to hire a babysitter for a few hours a week?
As a single parent overwhelmed by the demands of remote work, homeschooling, and caring for two restless children, I find myself wrestling with these decisions. My decision-making has often been erratic. One minute, a family hike with grandparents, all masked and spaced apart, feels reasonable; the next, a simple sidewalk playdate seems alarmingly risky. Each decision can feel monumental, like a matter of life and death; at times, it feels like a choice between merely existing and truly living.
In a recent newsletter, Dr. Ava Rodriguez, an economics professor and fellow parent, outlined a five-step risk assessment framework tailored for navigating COVID-19 decisions. This structured approach has been invaluable for me. As an economist, her method revolves around a risk-benefit analysis that emphasizes there is no universal answer to any query.
Dr. Rodriguez’s Five-Step Framework
Her five-step framework is as follows: (1) Define the question, (2) Mitigate risks, (3) Assess risks, (4) Weigh benefits, and finally, (5) Make a decision.
The first step of framing the question is often the hardest. Dr. Rodriguez advises that one must clarify precisely what action they are contemplating and also consider alternatives. For instance, if pondering whether to send a child back to daycare when it reopens, the decision rests on whether the alternative is to wait a month, until September, or until there’s a vaccine. By limiting the options, the decision-making process becomes clearer. This framing can also reveal any gaps in reasoning, such as what might change in a month.
Once the question is framed, Dr. Rodriguez suggests considering how to minimize risks: what’s the safest way to engage in the proposed activity? We now understand more about COVID-19 transmission than we did earlier in the pandemic. For example, masks are crucial, and outdoor interactions carry less risk than indoor ones. All available information must be taken into account.
Next, it’s essential to evaluate the risk for everyone involved. She proposes a formula: “Probability of an Infected Person x Probability of Transmission x Probability of Severe Illness or Death.” While this formula is not infallible—general statistics can’t predict individual outcomes—it offers a way to gauge risk. It’s a daunting task, especially when those odds pertain to life-threatening situations.
This leads to the necessity of balancing assessed risks against potential benefits. If the risk appears low and the benefits are substantial, the decision may become easier.
The reality is that we will be coexisting with this virus for an extended period, and the risks it poses are daunting. COVID-19 has claimed over 100,000 lives in the United States alone. Many survivors face lingering health issues, and new risks continue to surface. However, maintaining strict isolation as a solo parent is unsustainable. I must embrace some level of risk to alleviate the burdens I’ve been carrying since March.
I recognize that for some, the risk-benefit analysis will always tilt toward caution, deeming the risks too high compared to the minimal benefits. There is undeniable privilege in being able to choose whether to take a risk; for instance, my job’s flexibility allows me to homeschool. It’s important to understand that while employing this risk assessment framework is a personal choice, each of our decisions plays a significant role in our collective response to the virus. We are not making choices in isolation, and that must be factored into our individual decisions.
With so much still unknown about this virus, and our understanding evolving daily, risk assessments may shift frequently. My decisions may continue to fluctuate as new information emerges. However, having a structured method for evaluating my thoughts provides much-needed clarity as I navigate the uncertain waters of tomorrow.
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Summary
The article discusses the complexities of decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting a five-step risk assessment framework developed by an economics professor. This method emphasizes the importance of defining questions, mitigating risks, and weighing benefits to make informed choices. It also reflects on the emotional toll of these decisions, particularly for single parents, while acknowledging the ongoing presence of the virus and the necessity of finding a balance between caution and the need for normalcy.
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